Risk Switchboard
Data updated
Risk mode
...

Loading the current market backdrop.

Today’s read

Loading the plain-English interpretation.

This page is a risk filter, not a buy or sell signal.

Risk Mode History
Last 30 days
History will fill after snapshots run

Use this to see whether the swing-trading backdrop is improving, fading, or staying mixed.

30-day score trend Waiting
Market pulse
...
...
Risk-offBelow 20-DMANeutralNear 20-DMARisk-onAbove 20-DMA
SPY vs 20-day moving average

The number shows how far SPY is above or below its short-term trend. Today's +/- reading is not breadth; it is short-term market momentum.

How to use itPositive means buyers still have control. Negative means the tape is weakening and swing entries need tighter risk.
Participation
...
...
WeakBelow 45%Mixed45-60%BroadAbove 60%
S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day moving average

This is true breadth. It shows whether many stocks are participating, or whether the index is being carried by fewer large names.

How to use itAbove 60% means participation is broad. Below 45% means rallies deserve caution because fewer stocks are helping.
Volatility climate
...
...
StressBelow 1.00Caution1.00-1.10Calm1.10+
VIX3M / VIX term structure

This compares 3-month expected volatility with short-term volatility. It shows whether near-term fear is calm or stressed.

How to use itAbove 1.10 usually supports swing trades. Below 1.00 means short-term fear is elevated. Very high readings can also warn of complacency if price is extended.
Credit pulse
...
...
Widening
+50 bps
Flat
0
Tightening
-50 bps
High-yield spread change, last 10 observations

This shows whether risky corporate-bond spreads are widening or tightening. Tightening means investors are demanding less extra yield to own riskier debt.

How to use itTightening supports equity risk. Widening warns that stress is rising and stock rallies deserve less trust.
Credit risk-on
...
...
Risk-offHYG laggingNeutralFlatRisk-onHYG leading
HYG vs IEF trend

This compares high-yield bonds with safer intermediate Treasuries. It tells us whether investors are choosing risk or safety.

How to use itHYG leading IEF usually supports swing trades. HYG lagging while stocks rise is a warning divergence.
Yield curve
...
...
HeadwindInverted / fallingMixedFlatSupportivePositive / rising
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield

This is the macro backdrop. It compares long-term rates with short-term rates and helps show whether policy pressure is easing or tightening.

How to use itA positive or steepening curve is usually easier for markets. A flattening or inverted curve is a headwind unless credit and price action are strong.
How to read this page
Green readingsConditions are more supportive for swing trades. You can consider normal risk if the individual chart setup is clean.
Yellow readingsThe market is mixed. Be selective, reduce size, and demand better entries instead of chasing.
Red readingsRisk is deteriorating. Avoid forcing trades, tighten stops, or wait for stronger confirmation.
Best useThis is a backdrop filter. It helps decide how aggressive to be, but entries still need structure, stops, and reward-to-risk.
Supportive backdropMarket pulse positive, participation broad, volatility calm, credit spreads tightening, and HYG leading IEF. Favour quality breakouts and pullbacks to support.
Selective backdropSignals disagree. Use smaller size, focus on stronger names, and avoid weak charts below key moving averages.
Defensive backdropMarket pulse negative, credit widening, or HYG lagging. Cash, smaller size, and patience are valid decisions.
What to do with the data
SupportiveNormal position size, clean breakouts, pullbacks to 10/20 EMA, and relative-strength leaders.
SelectiveSmaller size, better entries, quicker profit-taking, and avoid low-quality or extended names.
DefensiveProtect capital, avoid new weak setups, expect failed breakouts, and build watchlists instead of forcing trades.
Never skipEvery trade still needs a defined entry, invalidation level, stop, target, and reward-to-risk check.
✓ Market pulse supports the trade ✓ Participation is not weak ✓ Volatility is not stressed ✓ Credit is not deteriorating ✓ HYG/IEF is not breaking down ✓ Stock has relative strength vs SPY ✓ Entry is not extended ✓ Stop and target are defined before entry
Quick Timing Deck
Updated ...
Close EMA 5 EMA 20 RSI 14 lower panel

Look for closes above the fast EMA and the fast above the slow (stacked EMAs) for momentum entries. Pullbacks to EMA-20 that hold are often swingable when credit confirms. The lower blue line is RSI 14: above 50 confirms momentum; below 50 warns that momentum is fading.

Timing deck unavailable.
HYG ≥ 20DMA HYG/IEF uptrend SPY ↔ HYG divergence